MCDW Exploration

The temporary “progress report” comments in the parent post can be found at the end of this post.

Reformatting of MCDW data

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GISTEMP, GHCN and Valentia

Publishing this post now in advance of completion to be able to discuss some aspects with others. Hoping to complete it soon.

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KML data for 434 WMO stations

As KML files are not permitted by wordpress.com for security reasons, save the data below as 434_Stations.kml, then open in Google Earth. You can either copy and paste the text from <?xml version=”1.0″ encoding= … to </Folder></kml>, or save the complete page as text and delete everything before <?xml version=”1.0″ encoding= … and everything after </Folder></kml>.

When you open this file in Google Earth a “BalloonStyle.kml” folder will have been added to your “Temporary Places” folder. This new folder contains 434 pairs of entries for the 434 WMO stations. These are 434 WMO stations for which the GISTEMP urban/rural classification is wrong, as a result of location errors. See  https://oneillp.wordpress.com/2019/02/14/nasa-gistemp/ for further details. The stations are in GHCN/GISS v3 inventory order. Double click on the station ID for a pushpin at the WMO location, double click on the station name for a pushpin at the erroneous GHCN/GISS location. Clicking on these pushpins will open up some further details about each location.

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Another look at NASA Gistemp

Publishing this post now in advance of completion to have it available in another post. More details of the companion KML file to be added.

I started this blog in 2010, discussing shortcomings in the station location metadata used in Gistemp at that time, derived from the GHCN-M v2 station inventory. GISS has moved on to use the GHCN-M v3 inventory, and now the GHCN-M v4 inventory. But the station location metadata in these versions is still problematic. It is not possible to correctly classify a station as urban or rural if you try to make the classification on the basis of night time luminance from a satellite image if you do not actually know the correct location of that station.

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“The last four years” and beyond

Discussion of “the last four years” rarely seems to be accompanied by illustration of the monthly detail of those last four years. To counter this omission I’ve put together this page with the four global temperature series used by the IPCC to form a weighted average series (if you have found the weightings used anywhere, please post them here as a comment), as well as the two principal satellite series.

I’ve centred the annual means at July in the figures which follow. I’ll try to keep this post updated as new monthly data is published. The composite image of all series will be updated only monthly. Continue reading

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Valentia, Met Éireann and NOAA

A short delay explanation: I did say “further details following“, but following a minor stroke that “following” has had to become a flexible term. Not forgotten, but further down the list of priorities.

Placeholder for now. Discussion, explanations and further details following.

Image settings have been updated so that images can be opened enlarged in a new tab or window.

There will be a short (I hope) pause while I investigate the stations used by GHCN to adjust Valentia. Complicated by the not uncommon situation in climate science that things are not quite what they seem. In this case the downloadable code dates from 2012, which should correspond to v3.2.0 — but in fact it seems to be code specially modified for a dataset for Peter Thorne, now of Maynooth. When reconfigured for GHCN input and run with GHCN-M v3.2.0 raw data the output is close to, but does not quite match, the corresponding GHCN-M adjusted data. Whether this is due to some hard-coded parameter or parameters which were not placed in the documented configuration files, or whether the modified basic code was frozen in time before all the modifications for v3.2.0 were completed, remains for the moment a matter of conjecture.

As the tutorial material I am adding will be excessive for those already familiar with some topics, I will finally shorten the post by moving out some expanded explanations to linked secondary posts.

This post started out to bring together a Twitter conversation:

Twitter2018-07-21

The remaining corrupted Valentia GHCN-M data, dealt with further below, is relatively minor. But the facts that even after notification and ‘correction’ any such errors remain, and that 17 months later the nature of their errors in MCDW still seems to elude them, as evidenced by the absence of a code correction, can hardly inspire confidence in their claim that the problem lies just with ‘some mean temperature data for select stations in Ireland’.

This post now also provides an opportunity to clarify some common misunderstandings regarding surface temperature series as well as discussing the specific question above.

Owen M seems sound on energy, but has fallen into the trap of straying from the area he is familiar with and accepting what seems at face value an authoritative analysis, but one by someone else who has also strayed from the area they were familiar with, and not understood the source data they were dealing with. This is the reason I try to confine my own blog posts to Surface Temperature data sets, and in particular Gistemp and GHCN. It is only too easy to make errors when accepting other peoples work at face value without checking for yourself.

I dealt with Ewert’s errors in November 2015 when blogs picked up his material. At Not a Lot of People Know That (1), Not a Lot of People Know That (2), Not a Lot of People Know That (3) and NoTricksZone. At NoTricksZone unfortunately a flood of comments from one David Appell, although he was correct on this occasion, seems likely to have caused the substantive issue to become lost.

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The Irish Times no longer allows comments without subscription

IrishTimesNoComments

And here is the comment I would have liked to make regarding a suggestion “any chance of bringing back John Gibbons’s regular column?”. The context for the first two paragraphs is a Gibbons piece published November 3rd 2017:  Ireland showing reckless disregard for climate justice

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