An Taisce’s Dahr Jamail timeline : source comparison

This is a short comparison of the “timeline” published by An Taisce in its January 2014 ezine with the sources claimed for these “timeline” items. For a more exhaustive (and exhausting!) treatment of this “timeline” see Through Giant Green Goggles

Update (November 22, 2016): You may notice that the link below for the Copenhagen Diagnosis report is to an Australian university rather than to the Copenhagen Diagnosis website. This is the link provided at http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.org/press.html , this page having now replaced the old Copenhagen Diagnosis homepage.

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GHCN and Gistemp Data Quality

Post to be completed when the post Self-adjusting the Adjustments is complete. Posted now as placeholder to allow linkage from previous post.

Location metadata

 

Temperature data

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Self-adjusting the Adjustments

This post is unfinished. I’m posting it now in order to refer to it in a comment on another blog, and intend to finish it in the near future.

April 14: finishing delayed while recoding data extraction to speed it up and enable further exploration of the effects of large GHCN adjusted value ranges.

If the title of this post seems familiar you may be recalling a Climate Audit post from 2010 NASA GISS – Adjusting the Adjustments which suggested that:

It is entirely possible that the change in GISS US since August 2007 is primarily due to the replacement of USHCN v1 methodology (TOBS and that sort of thing that we discussed in the past) with Menne’s changepoint methodology used in USHCN v2

This present post examines the volatility of the adjustments due to that changepoint methodology in the Global Historical Climatology Network-Monthly (GHCN-M v3) and the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN v2), and in NASA Gistemp, which uses the adjusted GHCN-M data as input.

The Climate Audit post considered changes resulting from a major change in methodology. Here I examine the changes resulting from the “less major” (I hesitate to use the word “minor” in the absence of disclosure of the updated code) changes in methodology from subversion to subversion, and the day-to-day changes in adjusted station records using the same subversion – hence the change in title to “Self-adjusting the Adjustments”. And while the focus of the Climate Audit post was primarily on the US, my focus is primarily global, with only peripheral discussion of USHCN. Continue reading

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Urban corrections in Gistemp (and GHCN-M), “then and now”

Further content coming soon. This placeholder post published now to allow a link to the coming post to be included in an online comment.

Hansen et al. 1999 (Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, J. Glascoe, and M. Sato, 1999: GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 30997-31022, doi:10.1029/1999JD900835) illustrates the Gistemp urban adjustment with two examples, Tokyo and Phoenix.

Hansen1999Fig3

Hansen1999Fig3caption

This post first of all updates these two examples. First consider recent data, Gistemp up to September 2015 (the “now”). In all plots below the values in the key show the temperature rise, in degrees C per decade for the corresponding data set. Data series based on GHCN-M v2 (the “then”) are shown as dotted lines:

TokyoGISS

TokyoAdjustments

Most of the adjustment comes from the adjusted GHCN-M data now used by Gistemp as input. Gistemp itself makes a smaller contribution to the overall adjustment.

PhoenixGISS

PhoenixAdjustments

In this case GHCN-M adjusted and Gistemp contribute roughly equally to the overall adjustment.

The overall adjustment for Tokyo, 16 years on, is somewhat less that Hansen et al. 1999 had shown, although they suggested that “The true nonclimatic warming in Tokyo may be even somewhat larger than suggested by Figure 3”, while that for Phoenix is almost the same 16 years on.

Now consider an older Gistemp data set, with data up to March 2009 (date chosen as the archived data is conveniently to hand on disk). In this case Gistemp was still using the unadjusted GHCN-M data as input.

TokyoGISS200903

TokyoAdjustments200903

PhoenixGISS200903

PhoenixAdjustments200903

The broken-line Gistemp adjustments are seen more clearly here, since the inclusion of the GHCN-M adjustments on the earlier plot tends to obscure the broken-line nature of that Gistemp adjustment.

Finally consider both dates plotted together:

TokyoGISSboth

TokyoAdjustmentsboth

PhoenixGISSboth

PhoenixAdjustmentsboth

We see

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GHCN-M adjustment samples: (7xx) Antarctica

For details of what is illustrated here, start from Wanderings of a Marseille January 1978 temperature, according to GHCN-M, continue with GHCN-M: Stations similar to Marseille/Marignane

Further discussion to come later once images have been generated and added for remaining regions.

700 Antarctica (34)

As data for some of these stations comes from both GHCN-M and SCAR, Gistemp can have two different values in the same month. Values derived from SCAR data are distinguished by use of a filled black triangle symbol. Stations which have no adjustments and SCAR stations which do not appear in the GHCN-M inventory are not shown here.

SANAE
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GHCN-M adjustment samples: (6xx) Europe

For details of what is illustrated here, start from Wanderings of a Marseille January 1978 temperature, according to GHCN-M, continue with GHCN-M: Stations similar to Marseille/Marignane

Antarctic stations have been inserted here now before returning to continue with the GHCN-M station sequence. I may also split this post into two posts, Europe and Antarctica, later. I have also now added images for Irish stations. 

Further discussion to come later once images have been generated and added for remaining regions.

601 Albania (4)

Shkodra

602 Armenia (2)

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GHCN-M adjustment samples: (5xx) Pacific and Australasia

For details of what is illustrated here, start from Wanderings of a Marseille January 1978 temperature, according to GHCN-M, continue with GHCN-M: Stations similar to Marseille/Marignane

Further discussion to come later once images have been generated and added for remaining regions.

501 Australia (586)

Richmond
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