“The last four years” and beyond

Discussion of “the last four years” rarely seems to be accompanied by illustration of the monthly detail of those last four years. To counter this omission I’ve put together this page with the four global temperature series used by the IPCC to form a weighted average series (if you have found the weightings used anywhere, please post them here as a comment), as well as the two principal satellite series. As time has moved on I’ve left the starting year here as 2015, with 7½ years of data in the figures now, but I am leaving the post title unaltered for now rather than changing it to a clumsy formulation such as “since the year before the great El Niño”.

2022-06-07 Now added: dotted horizontal lines to facilitate comparison of annual mean and 12-month running mean with the maximum of those series over the period plotted (2015 onwards). These lines will be introduced as new data is plotted.

I’ve centred the annual means at July in the figures which follow. The 12-month running means just added are centred on the end month, so the annual mean, for years already complete, is shown at July (red) and at December (blue). I’ll try to keep this post updated as new monthly data is published. The composite image of all series will be updated only monthly.

coper

[updated 2022-11-08 to October 2022]

As downloaded (no rebasing needed):

        Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct    Nov    Dec
2010 0.194 0.222 0.269 0.252 0.198 0.086 0.051 0.046 0.099 0.116 0.134 -0.102
2011 -0.090 -0.176 -0.059 0.014 -0.042 0.020 0.142 0.110 0.047 0.029 -0.095 -0.038
2012 -0.165 -0.179 -0.136 0.054 0.173 0.119 0.040 0.076 0.113 0.219 0.196 -0.032
2013 0.147 0.016 0.024 -0.036 0.021 0.107 -0.026 0.054 0.170 0.051 0.150 0.127
2014 0.127 -0.096 0.091 0.110 0.183 0.072 0.065 0.136 0.184 0.163 0.051 0.188
2015 0.193 0.199 0.229 0.056 0.176 0.186 0.153 0.242 0.267 0.441 0.386 0.539
2016 0.551 0.688 0.626 0.529 0.415 0.261 0.360 0.401 0.358 0.341 0.405 0.335
2017 0.404 0.499 0.500 0.328 0.372 0.202 0.265 0.296 0.280 0.359 0.248 0.372
2018 0.241 0.263 0.273 0.305 0.252 0.225 0.278 0.208 0.199 0.354 0.238 0.331
2019 0.285 0.308 0.508 0.437 0.357 0.368 0.396 0.356 0.379 0.453 0.405 0.539
2020 0.581 0.599 0.488 0.520 0.466 0.360 0.324 0.266 0.434 0.376 0.537 0.235
2021 0.244 0.060 0.190 0.190 0.257 0.212 0.330 0.311 0.401 0.421 0.346 0.322
2022 0.278 0.230 0.394 0.283 0.256 0.308 0.376 0.295 0.349 0.409

CoperE

[updated 2022-11-08 to October 2022]

         Jan     Feb     Mar     Apr     May     Jun     Jul     Aug     Sep     Oct     Nov     Dec
2010 -3.1547 -1.2245 -0.5885  0.4318  0.1344  0.0498  1.7235  0.8349 -0.2022 -1.2230  0.4360 -2.7127
2011 -0.2882 -2.1180 -0.3979 1.2613 0.2891 0.3893 0.1269 -0.1205 1.2172 0.0451 0.2149 1.9992
2012 -0.2556 -4.0056 0.5764 -0.0261 0.7040 0.2982 0.4795 0.2829 0.4480 0.4022 1.2965 -1.7939
2013 -0.2202 0.5040 -2.7055 -0.1238 0.8778 0.4240 0.1131 0.2408 -0.3990 0.6845 1.1429 0.8817
2014 0.3315 2.8037 2.1585 1.0443 0.2104 -0.5802 0.6196 -0.1102 0.5539 0.4117 0.8339 0.7552
2015 0.8914 1.0684 1.3036 -0.0068 0.2195 -0.3182 0.0645 0.7955 1.0272 -0.3340 1.7492 2.5502
2016 -1.2262 3.1830 0.7742 0.9156 0.5353 0.6038 0.5536 0.1746 1.0100 -0.4474 -0.7692 0.2181
2017 -1.3182 1.1459 2.0485 -0.6551 -0.1157 0.4305 -0.1826 0.5096 0.2391 0.4563 0.1445 1.4056
2018 1.6266 -1.4972 -1.8591 1.9400 2.0886 0.3494 1.2580 0.9253 1.2487 0.8093 0.6597 0.6445
2019 -0.6235 2.1509 1.2531 0.5249 -0.2899 1.8708 -0.3602 0.3606 0.3315 0.8762 0.9283 2.6226
2020 2.6476 3.2934 1.5365 0.1087 -0.6200 0.8736 -0.1736 0.5867 1.4200 1.3897 1.5680 1.6846
2021 0.0725 -0.1732 -0.0434 -0.8547 -0.4588 1.5116 1.4101 -0.0248 -0.1728 0.1096 0.5411 -0.2081
2022 0.7941 2.3795 -0.2998 -0.4245 0.2937 1.5748 0.7193 1.7248 -0.3714 1.9215

NOAA

[updated 2022-11-16 to October 2022]

        Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun   Jul   Aug    Sep    Oct    Nov    Dec
2010 0.114 0.184 0.264 0.234 0.154 0.134 0.114 0.074 0.004 0.014 0.134 -0.156
2011 -0.156 -0.166 -0.016 0.014 -0.066 0.024 0.034 0.034 -0.026 -0.006 -0.126 -0.066
2012 -0.176 -0.166 -0.106 0.114 0.124 0.104 0.084 0.084 0.124 0.084 0.084 -0.146
2013 0.004 0.044 0.054 -0.026 0.064 0.074 0.044 0.064 0.064 0.044 0.194 0.054
2014 0.084 -0.126 0.144 0.184 0.184 0.154 0.094 0.204 0.174 0.144 0.024 0.194
2015 0.214 0.254 0.304 0.194 0.284 0.294 0.234 0.294 0.324 0.414 0.384 0.534
2016 0.504 0.644 0.694 0.504 0.324 0.314 0.304 0.364 0.324 0.174 0.164 0.214
2017 0.364 0.404 0.464 0.304 0.254 0.224 0.284 0.304 0.244 0.194 0.184 0.254
2018 0.134 0.144 0.274 0.234 0.204 0.164 0.204 0.184 0.214 0.304 0.164 0.264
2019 0.324 0.234 0.474 0.354 0.254 0.334 0.304 0.304 0.324 0.324 0.304 0.434
2020 0.524 0.544 0.564 0.434 0.334 0.304 0.304 0.314 0.324 0.204 0.334 0.164
2021 0.154 0.024 0.234 0.174 0.194 0.274 0.304 0.274 0.264 0.264 0.284 0.214
2022 0.264 0.184 0.324 0.234 0.164 0.264 0.264 0.284 0.254 0.274

gistemp

[updated 2022-11-16 to October 2022]

        Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct    Nov    Dec
2010 0.139 0.219 0.309 0.229 0.139 0.069 0.009 0.059 0.019 0.089 0.199 -0.161
2011 -0.091 -0.141 0.039 0.039 -0.081 0.009 0.089 0.129 -0.051 0.039 -0.031 -0.011
2012 -0.121 -0.121 -0.031 0.109 0.169 0.029 -0.031 0.039 0.109 0.179 0.169 -0.081
2013 0.099 0.009 0.059 -0.071 -0.001 0.079 -0.011 0.079 0.159 0.079 0.229 0.079
2014 0.149 -0.061 0.169 0.179 0.249 0.059 -0.031 0.209 0.259 0.189 0.049 0.169
2015 0.239 0.289 0.339 0.149 0.189 0.199 0.109 0.189 0.239 0.479 0.449 0.549
2016 0.559 0.759 0.749 0.489 0.339 0.189 0.229 0.399 0.289 0.269 0.299 0.249
2017 0.409 0.529 0.549 0.329 0.299 0.109 0.199 0.259 0.149 0.289 0.269 0.319
2018 0.199 0.229 0.269 0.279 0.209 0.159 0.209 0.149 0.189 0.409 0.209 0.309
2019 0.319 0.329 0.559 0.399 0.239 0.299 0.329 0.329 0.319 0.399 0.379 0.479
2020 0.549 0.629 0.559 0.519 0.409 0.309 0.289 0.259 0.379 0.279 0.489 0.199
2021 0.199 0.029 0.269 0.149 0.169 0.229 0.309 0.199 0.309 0.379 0.319 0.239
2022 0.299 0.279 0.439 0.219 0.219 0.309 0.319 0.339 0.279 0.349

Hadcrut4.monthly

(baseline: 1991-2020)  [updated 2022-04-19 to December 2021]

As downloaded:

       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
2010 0.560 0.592 0.682 0.689 0.592 0.585 0.615 0.539 0.448 0.497 0.592 0.334
2011 0.315 0.324 0.420 0.491 0.393 0.494 0.511 0.491 0.446 0.458 0.353 0.402
2012 0.310 0.301 0.360 0.574 0.573 0.556 0.507 0.536 0.556 0.556 0.550 0.271
2013 0.471 0.498 0.421 0.450 0.525 0.501 0.518 0.541 0.546 0.516 0.660 0.532
2014 0.534 0.327 0.584 0.667 0.608 0.625 0.544 0.677 0.601 0.635 0.504 0.655
2015 0.705 0.689 0.708 0.673 0.711 0.743 0.697 0.740 0.796 0.845 0.840 1.024
2016 0.934 1.111 1.106 0.937 0.707 0.744 0.744 0.790 0.729 0.598 0.553 0.620
2017 0.739 0.845 0.873 0.737 0.659 0.641 0.651 0.714 0.557 0.571 0.554 0.600
2018 0.554 0.528 0.615 0.627 0.587 0.573 0.594 0.586 0.598 0.678 0.590 0.638
2019 0.738 0.662 0.874 0.780 0.610 0.708 0.706 0.719 0.713 0.752 0.693 0.880
2020 0.982 1.001 1.017 0.800 0.714 0.682 0.695 0.735 0.714 0.617 0.761 0.516
2021 0.538 0.492 0.634 0.598 0.627 0.672 0.725 0.711 0.681 0.729 0.711 0.651

Rebased to 1991-2020:

        Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May   Jun   Jul   Aug    Sep    Oct    Nov    Dec
2010  0.094  0.126  0.216  0.223  0.126 0.119 0.149 0.073 -0.018  0.031  0.126 -0.132
2011 -0.151 -0.142 -0.046 0.025 -0.073 0.028 0.045 0.025 -0.020 -0.008 -0.113 -0.064
2012 -0.156 -0.165 -0.106 0.108 0.107 0.090 0.041 0.070 0.090 0.090 0.084 -0.195
2013 0.005 0.032 -0.045 -0.016 0.059 0.035 0.052 0.075 0.080 0.050 0.194 0.066
2014 0.068 -0.139 0.118 0.201 0.142 0.159 0.078 0.211 0.135 0.169 0.038 0.189
2015 0.239 0.223 0.242 0.207 0.245 0.277 0.231 0.274 0.330 0.379 0.374 0.558
2016 0.468 0.645 0.640 0.471 0.241 0.278 0.278 0.324 0.263 0.132 0.087 0.154
2017 0.273 0.379 0.407 0.271 0.193 0.175 0.185 0.248 0.091 0.105 0.088 0.134
2018 0.088 0.062 0.149 0.161 0.121 0.107 0.128 0.120 0.132 0.212 0.124 0.172
2019 0.272 0.196 0.408 0.314 0.144 0.242 0.240 0.253 0.247 0.286 0.227 0.414
2020 0.516 0.535 0.551 0.334 0.248 0.216 0.229 0.269 0.248 0.151 0.295 0.050
2021 0.072 0.026 0.168 0.132 0.161 0.206 0.259 0.245 0.215 0.263 0.245 0.185

HadCrut 5.0.1.0 is now available, and updating, although about one month later than other series here. This data is added below (blue line) to the HadCrut 4.6 image to provide a comparison. HadCrut 5.0.1.0 is now added to this page. For the moment HadCrut 4.6 will be shown also while it continues to be updated in tandem with HadCrut 5.0.HadCrut45

HadCrut5

[updated 2022-11-25 to October 2022]

        Jan    Feb    Mar   Apr    May   Jun   Jul   Aug    Sep   Oct    Nov    Dec
2010 0.167 0.246 0.316 0.289 0.171 0.101 0.073 0.071 0.020 0.098 0.191 -0.107
2011 -0.087 -0.115 0.012 0.058 -0.101 0.004 0.101 0.107 -0.006 0.032 -0.033 -0.049
2012 -0.174 -0.079 -0.123 0.066 0.115 0.085 0.024 0.101 0.104 0.188 0.177 -0.080
2013 0.064 -0.018 0.039 0.031 0.013 0.115 0.045 0.091 0.178 0.106 0.226 0.064
2014 0.126 -0.053 0.150 0.192 0.193 0.073 0.037 0.190 0.213 0.198 0.086 0.141
2015 0.196 0.238 0.251 0.157 0.187 0.216 0.171 0.255 0.282 0.471 0.452 0.498
2016 0.544 0.680 0.638 0.486 0.336 0.233 0.234 0.405 0.301 0.275 0.300 0.235
2017 0.408 0.523 0.521 0.302 0.236 0.113 0.261 0.267 0.185 0.265 0.262 0.271
2018 0.167 0.252 0.246 0.278 0.169 0.193 0.189 0.191 0.132 0.325 0.201 0.280
2019 0.256 0.300 0.532 0.395 0.234 0.265 0.313 0.314 0.259 0.412 0.393 0.493
2020 0.525 0.569 0.550 0.519 0.364 0.281 0.272 0.257 0.323 0.267 0.469 0.149
2021 0.157 0.020 0.182 0.216 0.162 0.169 0.248 0.255 0.323 0.363 0.310 0.207
2022 0.235 0.219 0.346 0.226 0.217 0.314 0.234 0.309 0.246 0.382

UAH

 

(baseline: 1991-2020)   [updated 2022-11-11 to October 2022]

       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
2010 0.36 0.30 0.39 0.20 0.29 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.19 0.02 0.01 -0.04
2011 -0.21 -0.22 -0.31 -0.16 -0.12 0.01 0.07 0.03 -0.01 -0.23 -0.17 -0.13
2012 -0.34 -0.39 -0.17 -0.02 -0.07 0.00 -0.11 -0.05 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.00
2013 0.31 -0.03 -0.02 -0.07 -0.12 0.08 -0.09 -0.07 0.06 0.02 -0.09 0.02
2014 0.06 -0.02 -0.03 -0.01 0.12 0.12 0.08 -0.06 -0.01 0.08 0.10 0.10
2015 0.16 0.04 0.06 -0.03 0.14 0.18 0.02 0.13 0.09 0.28 0.21 0.35
2016 0.42 0.70 0.64 0.61 0.42 0.21 0.26 0.32 0.30 0.28 0.35 0.16
2017 0.26 0.30 0.18 0.18 0.32 0.09 0.17 0.29 0.39 0.47 0.22 0.31
2018 0.15 0.09 0.15 0.09 0.04 0.07 0.17 0.06 -0.03 0.04 0.12 0.13
2019 0.24 0.21 0.22 0.32 0.20 0.34 0.25 0.26 0.45 0.30 0.42 0.44
2020 0.42 0.60 0.35 0.26 0.42 0.30 0.31 0.30 0.40 0.38 0.40 0.15
2021 0.12 0.20 0.00 -0.05 0.08 -0.01 0.20 0.17 0.26 0.37 0.09 0.21
2022 0.03 0.00 0.15 0.26 0.17 0.06 0.36 0.28 0.24 0.32

RSS

(baseline: 1991-2020) [updated 2022-10-10 to September 2022]

        Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep    Oct    Nov    Dec
2010  0.378  0.315  0.395  0.268  0.294 0.265 0.331 0.325 0.299  0.128  0.115  0.002
2011 -0.135 -0.159 -0.228 -0.137 -0.115 0.057 0.114 0.086 0.082 -0.087 -0.174 -0.107
2012 -0.276 -0.336 -0.148 0.088 -0.022 0.100 0.053 0.078 0.233 0.190 0.069 -0.073
2013 0.271 0.053 0.066 0.045 -0.052 0.119 0.049 0.011 0.129 0.125 0.028 0.020
2014 0.129 0.056 0.097 0.106 0.124 0.187 0.190 0.064 0.081 0.216 0.143 0.155
2015 0.244 0.221 0.168 0.042 0.165 0.234 0.147 0.272 0.319 0.477 0.378 0.458
2016 0.573 0.906 0.777 0.652 0.373 0.318 0.337 0.338 0.487 0.339 0.299 0.114
2017 0.305 0.400 0.292 0.242 0.311 0.170 0.283 0.404 0.543 0.504 0.241 0.276
2018 0.237 0.179 0.224 0.131 0.089 0.132 0.302 0.186 0.180 0.219 0.210 0.190
2019 0.351 0.330 0.387 0.459 0.285 0.476 0.364 0.353 0.554 0.371 0.374 0.463
2020 0.548 0.679 0.504 0.417 0.466 0.418 0.397 0.430 0.528 0.463 0.469 0.224
2021 0.247 0.294 0.115 0.192 0.202 0.174 0.323 0.295 0.417 0.460 0.193 0.268
2022 0.185 0.144 0.229 0.327 0.178 0.142 0.408 0.345 0.359

AllSeries

(common baseline: 1991-2020) [updated 2021-05-24]

All series in image above updated to latest data available on 2021-05-24, the individual series images preceding this image may have been updated with later data. All series including Cowtan-Way now have complete data for 2020. At 2021-05-24 Cowtan-Way had no 2021 data. HadCRUT had data to March 2021 only. All other series had data to April 2021.

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